Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.014755 0.016739 0.018898 0.021422 0.024295 0.027465 0.031229
2025-03-23 0.011875 0.014655 0.017950 0.022147 0.027360 0.033635 0.041780
2025-03-30 0.009723 0.012699 0.016433 0.021473 0.028117 0.036603 0.048308
2025-04-06 0.008357 0.011430 0.015469 0.021186 0.029100 0.039715 0.055110
2025-04-13 0.007147 0.010169 0.014303 0.020398 0.029198 0.041509 0.060158
2025-04-20 0.006625 0.009770 0.014232 0.021059 0.031302 0.046196 0.069676
2025-04-27 0.006153 0.009373 0.014098 0.021575 0.033194 0.050695 0.079317
2025-05-04 0.005783 0.009080 0.014067 0.022212 0.035288 0.055646 0.090099
2025-05-11 0.005274 0.008512 0.013553 0.022025 0.036044 0.058543 0.097845
2025-05-18 0.004876 0.008080 0.013199 0.022044 0.037102 0.061977 0.106759
2025-05-25 0.004460 0.007574 0.012675 0.021718 0.037533 0.064378 0.114100
2025-06-01 0.004204 0.007309 0.012522 0.021996 0.039002 0.068641 0.125079
2025-06-08 0.003869 0.006886 0.012073 0.021735 0.039532 0.071376 0.133705
2025-06-15 0.003712 0.006764 0.012137 0.022398 0.041794 0.077428 0.149140
2025-06-22 0.003372 0.006277 0.011505 0.021720 0.041493 0.078712 0.155554
2025-06-29 0.003123 0.005934 0.011104 0.021430 0.041888 0.081318 0.164786
2025-07-06 0.002832 0.005488 0.010471 0.020632 0.041212 0.081773 0.169692
2025-07-13 0.002749 0.005435 0.010580 0.021301 0.043511 0.088310 0.187823
2025-07-20 0.002653 0.005350 0.010617 0.021823 0.045551 0.094498 0.205835
2025-07-27 0.002577 0.005296 0.010711 0.022467 0.047900 0.101529 0.226394
2025-08-03 0.002420 0.005062 0.010421 0.022279 0.048450 0.104784 0.238850
2025-08-10 0.002296 0.004887 0.010236 0.022297 0.049449 0.109091 0.254134
2025-08-17 0.002149 0.004651 0.009906 0.021968 0.049639 0.111619 0.265507